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Date: Mon, 14 Jan 2002 07:51:34 -0800 (PST)
From: tradersummary@syncrasy.com
To: vkamins@ect.enron.com
Subject: Syncrasy Daily Trader Summary for Mon, Jan 14, 2002
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[IMAGE]=09


[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]        Syncrasy, =
LLC?   713.228.8470 Off  713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Avenue  Suite 1314  H=
ouston, TX 77002         www.syncrasy.com          Sales:  713.228.4407   D=
evelopment Offices:  970.247.4139 Off  970.247.7951 Fax   835 Main Avenue  =
Suite 221  Durango, CO 81301      =09  =09 [IMAGE]    Complimentary version=
 of Trader Summary  from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc.    - If you woul=
d like to receive this product early in the morning       please call Syncr=
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reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_trad=
ersummary@syncrasy.com       Data last updated: Monday, Jan 14, 2002 at 07:=
43AM EST    Commentary last updated: Monday, Jan 14, 2002 at 09:17AM EST  M=
eteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote     Congratulation=
s Andy Weingarten, APB Energy!  Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUILA=
/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit: A=
MS  or Aquila    New! >> Printable PDF Trader Summary  (You must have Adobe=
 Acrobat Reader  to open or print a PDF)   Click here for a definition of '=
Average-Daily Maximum Temperature'      Today: Monday, January 14, 2002   S=
yncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAG=
E][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR=
) 43 +2 ERCOT(SP) 65 +2 FRCC(SE) 71 NC MAAC(NE) 46 +2 MAIN(CTR) 39 +2 MAPP(=
HP) 31 +3 NPCC(NE) 34 +2 SERC(SE) 57 -2 SPP(SP) 52 +3 WSCC(NW) 38 +2 WSCC(R=
K) 33 +5 WSCC(SW) 57 +1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg =
CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 36 32 35 34 29 57 55 54 Max 41 36 39 39 38 61 =
63 58 Min 34 28 27 29 21 54 47 50 Range 7 8 12 10 17 7 16 8 StD-P 1.6 3.1 2=
.8 3.2 5.2 1.9 4.7 3.1 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here  to See Eac=
h Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 1-5 Discussion:=
   This week will see some significant differences from last week. Arctic a=
ir finally gets into the battle, but can it win the war?   Signs continue t=
o indicate this is a strange and frustrating winter for many forecasters. O=
ne of the strongest N'oreasters in years forms in Mid-January this past wee=
kend. It turns out to be a harmless event for most as it tracks just too fa=
r off the coast. Plus, it was too warm for snow other than upstate Maine an=
d a bit of Eastern Mass. Then, a seemingly innocent looking system over the=
 Great Lakes drops some locally heavy snows over areas who spent much of la=
st week over 20 degrees above normal. So much for the look back now we look=
 ahead. There are several challenges ahead, though the main one for energy =
is in the medium range. I'll outline that one in the 6-10 day paragraph ! b=
elow. In the short term, we have lost the unusual warmth in the North, thou=
gh to call this air cold is a disservice to Northern climes. There are two =
distinct storm tracks this morning. The Southern branch is all rain along t=
he Gulf Coast and Southeast. The North is a mix with rain in the Southern l=
akes and some moderate snow in the North. We will see a couple of weak to m=
oderate weather systems come into the West and move across the country. The=
y don't appear to be travel interrupters, but may at least introduce some w=
inter to areas who have not seen much of late. When I superimpose a tempera=
ture forecast atop all of this, it looks cooler than last week for sure, bu=
t nothing major when compared to normal.    Tomorrow: Tuesday, January 15, =
2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE=
]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   =
ECAR(CTR) 38 NC ERCOT(SP) 66 +5 FRCC(SE) 71 -2 MAAC(NE) 49 NC MAIN(CTR) 34 =
+2 MAPP(HP) 23 +2 NPCC(NE) 37 +2 SERC(SE) 57 NC SPP(SP) 51 +6 WSCC(NW) 33 N=
C WSCC(RK) 29 +3 WSCC(SW) 55 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE=
]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 31 26 38 32 28 55 58 51 Max 37 36 41 3=
7 34 61 64 57 Min 27 21 33 25 22 50 53 47 Range 10 15 8 12 12 11 11 10 StD-=
P 2.3 3.0 1.5 3.3 3.1 3.7 3.8 3.4 Count 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 Click Here =
 to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 3: We=
dnesday, January 16, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Ma=
trix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to =
enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 35 +4 ERCOT(SP) 68 +6 FRCC(SE) 70 NC MAAC(NE=
) 40 +1 MAIN(CTR) 30 +4 MAPP(HP) 18 +2 NPCC(NE) 32 NC SERC(SE) 56 +4 SPP(SP=
) 45 +5 WSCC(NW) 33 +1 WSCC(RK) 24 -1 WSCC(SW) 54 NC     Range Standard Dev=
iation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 28 24 32 31 22 53=
 61 50 Max 30 26 40 33 33 60 64 55 Min 25 20 28 26 15 49 57 45 Range 5 6 12=
 7 18 11 7 10 StD-P 1.3 1.7 3.3 2.0 4.5 3.8 2.0 3.3 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12=
 12 12 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility =
Matrix    Day 4: Thursday, January 17, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Tem=
p.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (=
Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 32 +3 ERCOT(SP) 64 +1 FRCC=
(SE) 74 +3 MAAC(NE) 42 +6 MAIN(CTR) 27 +1 MAPP(HP) 19 -2 NPCC(NE) 30 +4 SER=
C(SE) 56 +4 SPP(SP) 40 NC WSCC(NW) 36 NC WSCC(RK) 26 -3 WSCC(SW) 53 +1     =
Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean=
 26 23 32 32 22 56 57 49 Max 28 26 36 36 28 59 64 55 Min 23 20 29 28 17 54 =
53 45 Range 5 6 7 8 11 5 11 10 StD-P 1.8 1.8 1.5 2.2 3.2 1.9 3.3 2.9 Count =
10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Withi=
n the Volatility Matrix    Day 5: Friday, January 18, 2002   Syncrasy's Cho=
ice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [I=
MAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 31 -2 ERCOT=
(SP) 65 -3 FRCC(SE) 75 NC MAAC(NE) 38 +2 MAIN(CTR) 26 -5 MAPP(HP) 16 -6 NPC=
C(NE) 30 +1 SERC(SE) 55 -1 SPP(SP) 39 -5 WSCC(NW) 36 -2 WSCC(RK) 26 -4 WSCC=
(SW) 53 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW R=
K SE SP SW Mean 23 23 30 33 22 56 55 48 Max 26 26 34 36 29 60 60 54 Min 20 =
18 25 27 14 52 49 44 Range 6 8 9 9 15 8 11 10 StD-P 1.1 2.6 2.9 2.6 4.8 2.6=
 2.5 3.1 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here  to See Each Weather Fore=
cast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 6-10 Discussion:  The 6-10 da=
y period MAY become a bit more challenging. While the Lower 48 has basked i=
n warmer than normal air the past 10 days, we have seen a definite cooldown=
 in Canada. There is finally a real arctic duck on the pond, the question i=
s does it swim South. If one looks at the MRF or Canadian models the answer=
 is clearly no. But, my favorite and seemingly more reliable European is le=
ss clear. I think some arctic air will get into the Northern Plains, Great =
Lakes and Northeast. The jet stream looks too zonal farther South. However,=
 heavy cold air can sometimes press South in a zonal flow. I don't see a th=
reat in the Southern half of the country where in fact this period should b=
e above normal. The main threat appears to be North of 40 degrees Latitude =
meaning this is mainly a far Northern U.S. event.     Day 6: Saturday, Janu=
ary 19, 2002  Click Here  for Syncrasy's 6-10 summary information.  Syncras=
y's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMA=
GE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 32 -=
4 ERCOT(SP) 58 -7 FRCC(SE) 77 +1 MAAC(NE) 35 -7 MAIN(CTR) 29 -2 MAPP(HP) 25=
 +1 NPCC(NE) 27 -4 SERC(SE) 54 -4 SPP(SP) 42 -1 WSCC(NW) 40 +2 WSCC(RK) 32 =
+1 WSCC(SW) 54 +1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP =
NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 25 27 28 35 26 56 53 49 Max 28 31 32 40 32 58 60 54 =
Min 22 23 25 30 20 53 46 44 Range 6 8 7 10 12 5 14 10 StD-P 2.1 2.2 1.9 1.9=
 3.3 1.7 3.9 3.1 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Fore=
cast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 7: Sunday, January 20, 2002   =
Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMA=
GE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CT=
R) 36 NC ERCOT(SP) 62 -1 FRCC(SE) 76 NC MAAC(NE) 39 NC MAIN(CTR) 34 +1 MAPP=
(HP) 27 +1 NPCC(NE) 32 +3 SERC(SE) 55 -2 SPP(SP) 47 NC WSCC(NW) 40 NC WSCC(=
RK) 32 NC WSCC(SW) 55 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg=
 CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 28 28 29 35 28 55 54 49 Max 32 33 34 40 34 59=
 59 55 Min 20 25 25 30 20 52 49 45 Range 12 8 9 10 14 7 10 10 StD-P 2.6 2.1=
 2.6 2.7 4.4 2.6 3.3 3.4 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weat=
her Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 8: Monday, January 21=
, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMA=
GE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE] =
  ECAR(CTR) 32 -8 ERCOT(SP) 59 -2 FRCC(SE) 71 -1 MAAC(NE) 35 -9 MAIN(CTR) 3=
2 -2 MAPP(HP) 25 -3 NPCC(NE) 31 +6 SERC(SE) 53 -11 SPP(SP) 38 -2 WSCC(NW) 3=
5 +1 WSCC(RK) 28 +9 WSCC(SW) 47 +2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IM=
AGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 30 31 30 36 30 57 58 49 Max 35 33 3=
5 41 37 60 62 55 Min 27 28 20 30 25 52 54 45 Range 8 5 15 11 12 8 8 10 StD-=
P 1.8 1.4 3.0 2.8 3.7 2.1 2.2 3.9 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See =
Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix   Day 9: Tuesday, J=
anuary 22, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [I=
MAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)  =
 [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 31 -3 ERCOT(SP) 61 +5 FRCC(SE) 69 -3 MAAC(NE) 30 -11 M=
AIN(CTR) 39 +10 MAPP(HP) 38 +23 NPCC(NE) 29 -5 SERC(SE) 48 -10 SPP(SP) 53 +=
14 WSCC(NW) 30 -3 WSCC(RK) 29 +8 WSCC(SW) 44 -3     Range Standard Deviatio=
n [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 34 33 32 34 29 58 60 4=
8 Max 37 40 37 40 36 64 67 55 Min 30 29 29 30 24 52 57 44 Range 7 11 8 10 1=
2 12 10 11 StD-P 2.2 3.5 2.0 3.3 3.5 3.1 1.9 3.5 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Clic=
k Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    D=
ay 10: Wednesday, January 23, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Vola=
tility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on =
image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 41 +13 ERCOT(SP) 67 +14 FRCC(SE) 71=
 +2 MAAC(NE) 36 +2 MAIN(CTR) 46 +25 MAPP(HP) 37 +25 NPCC(NE) 31 +2 SERC(SE)=
 59 +9 SPP(SP) 56 +14 WSCC(NW) 27 -6 WSCC(RK) 19 -1 WSCC(SW) 41 -8     Rang=
e Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 35 =
28 33 29 18 58 56 38 Max 43 34 38 35 23 61 64 44 Min 27 21 31 27 12 54 45 3=
3 Range 16 13 7 8 11 7 19 11 StD-P 5.7 4.1 1.9 2.2 3.3 1.7 6.6 4.1 Count 6 =
6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Vola=
tility Matrix    Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for the  [=
IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall?   Trader Summary can also=
 be viewed from www.syncrasy.com  or     www.apbenergy.com  or  www.truequo=
te.com     [IMAGE]  =09
=09=09=09
